Wednesday, February 22, 2017

How jobs will do in US from 2017 and later?

I am realizing these days that you don't have to think in finances... Well, that is a bit of an exaggeration, but if you look hard enough, you can find somebody who spent a lot of time researching the question you are trying to answer, finding the angle that you are looking for, refuting one or other idea that you question, etc... As an example, yesterday I found out that people have been tracking the number of times that the word "optimism" shows up across all the CEO's earning reports to see how economy is going to do in the future. Geez!! They look for every indicator possible! This other article questions the pick-up in stock prices (reflecting technically a good economy) while commodities have not moved (which should be the result of increased demand for goods).

Anyhow, continuing with my analysis of US jobs that I did here, today I learnt:
  1. That you don't need to try to speculate what jobs will do... The congressional budge office will do the Labor Market Projections for you :). By the way, if you are interested to know, they predict that basically all the slack left on the labor market to deal with future job openings will run out in the next 2 years. "Everybody" will be employed with wages going up...
  2. Also learnt what the Beveridge curve is. Basically a plot of job openings rate vs unemployment rate. Very interested to anticipate where the economy is heading. 
  3. The #2 link gives the curve in 2012 and predicts that things are just going to get really good in the next 4 years. We all know they nailed it. For an updated Beveridge curve these days, check out this very recent (2/17) and nice article from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It includes also other graphs like number of unemployed persons per job opening. 

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